A.CRE

Stochastic Analysis

Also referred to as Probabilistic Analysis, Stochastic Analysis involves adding uncertainty to some or all of the inputs to the analysis such that the outcomes are likewise uncertain. In real estate financial modeling, this form of analysis allows the professional to better understand the range of outcomes (i.e. risk) possible in an investment.

The process of performing Stochastic Analysis first requires assigning probabilities to inputs, and then simulating scenarios over and over again to capture the various outcomes that result from the uncertain inputs.

Stochastic Analysis is often paired with a technique known as the Monte Carlo method. This method involves repeatedly running simulations hundreds or thousands of times, recording the outcomes of each simulation, and then aggregating those outcomes to understand the mean (i.e. most probable outcome), standard deviation (i.e. range of outcomes), minimum value, and maximum value of all of the outcomes.

Putting ‘Stochastic Analysis’ in Context

Apex Capital Lending, a new real estate debt shop, is looking to establish itself as a leader in underwriting complex deals. To gain an edge in the competitive lending market, the firm is building a proprietary underwriting model that incorporates Stochastic Analysis. Their focus is on analyzing the risk associated with funding The Union Point Project, a $120 million mixed-use development located in the urban core of Chicago, Illinois.

The Scenario

The Union Point Project is a 450,000-square-foot development featuring:

  • 300 luxury residential units making up 60% of the rentable square footage.
  • 50,000 square feet of street-level retail space intended for upscale shops and restaurants.

The sponsor has requested $75 million in debt financing to cover the construction and lease-up phases. While the project promises significant returns, the risks include:

  • Leasing uncertainty in the retail space.
  • Interest rate fluctuations during the construction period.
  • Cost overruns in a high-construction-cost market.

Applying Stochastic Analysis

Apex Capital Lending’s underwriting team uses Stochastic Analysis to model the risks and potential outcomes associated with the loan. Unlike traditional analysis that assumes static, fixed inputs, Stochastic Analysis accounts for uncertainty by assigning probabilities to key variables. The uncertain variables critical to this deal include:

  1. Lease-up velocity: The pace at which the residential and retail spaces are expected to lease.
  2. Achieved rental rates: Variability in market rents due to economic conditions.
  3. Construction costs: Potential for overruns based on historical cost data.
  4. Exit cap rates: Uncertainty in market conditions when the project is stabilized.

Instead of using fixed assumptions, the team assigns a range of possible outcomes to each input, along with associated probabilities. For instance:

  • Lease-up velocity: 85%-100% occupancy within 18-36 months (with a 70% probability of reaching 90% occupancy within 24 months).
  • Achieved rental rates: $2.80 to $3.20 per square foot for residential; $40 to $60 per square foot annually for retail (with a 50% probability centered around $3.00 and $50, respectively).
  • Construction costs: 5%-15% over budget (with a higher probability of a 10% overage).
  • Exit cap rates: 5.0% to 6.5% (with a 60% probability concentrated around 5.75%).

Simulating Outcomes

To capture the range of potential outcomes, the underwriting team runs 10,000 stochastic simulations using these input probabilities. Each simulation randomly selects a set of inputs within the assigned ranges and calculates the outcome. The key outputs of interest include:

After 10,000 iterations, the following results are observed:

  • Mean NOI: $8.5 million annually.
  • Standard deviation of NOI: $1.2 million.
  • Range of potential values:
    • Minimum: NOI of $6.8 million, stabilizing at 70% occupancy and a retail rent of $2.80 per square foot.
    • Maximum: NOI of $10.2 million, stabilizing at 100% occupancy and a retail rent of $3.20 per square foot.

Decision-Making with Stochastic Analysis Results

Stochastic Analysis enables Apex Capital Lending to make more informed decisions by quantifying the likelihood of various outcomes. The key takeaways from their analysis include:

  • A 70% chance that the debt coverage ratio (DCR) will exceed 1.25x at stabilization.
  • A 20% chance that construction costs could overrun by more than 10%.
  • A 60% chance that exit cap rates will be below 6%, which would support higher project valuation upon stabilization.

By quantifying these probabilities, Apex Capital Lending can price risk more appropriately. Based on the analysis, they offer a $75 million construction loan at a 7.5% interest rate, reflecting the project’s risk profile and the wide distribution of possible outcomes.

Takeaway

Stochastic Analysis enables Apex Capital Lending to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in real estate projects. By assigning probabilities to inputs and running thousands of simulations, they quantify the range of possible outcomes, assess the associated risk, and make better-informed underwriting decisions. This approach provides a clear competitive edge, especially when funding large, high-risk projects like The Union Point Project.

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