Entries by Spencer Burton

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Using an IRR Matrix to Determine Hold Period (Updated Dec 2023)

When building a real estate financial pro forma, it’s important to model for and include a summary of various return and risk metrics. Among the different return metrics, the internal rate of return (IRR) – both on an unlevered and levered basis – is one of the more important metrics to include in your analysis. One issue common to […]

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Actual + Forecast Construction Draw Schedule with S-Curve (Updated Dec 2023)

Several times in the last month, I’ve been asked to tackle an interesting real estate financial modeling challenge – pare actual construction draw cash flows with s-curve cash flow forecasts to create an Actuals + Forecast Construction Draw schedule. The real challenge in this exercise, is to have the actual construction draws transition into the […]

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Introducing Weighted Equity Multiple: An Alternative for Dynamic CRE Investments

Across a 22+ year career in the industry, I’ve encountered a range of complex scenarios that traditional metrics sometimes struggle to accurately capture. A case in point that has been top of mind for me recently is a weakness in the Equity Multiple, a metric fundamental to our understanding of investment performance but often lacking […]

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Superforecasting in Commercial Real Estate: Key Disciplines to Master

In commercial real estate investing, the ability to forecast an asset’s potential cash flows, anticipate market trends and make accurate predictions is essential – especially in an environment of flat or rising rates. This skill, sometimes referred to as ‘superforecasting,’ is something I’ve been actively working to master in my own career. One of my […]

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A.CRE Value-Add Apartment Acquisition Model (Updated Nov 2023)

We’ve shared a handful of apartment models over the years. Several of those are capable of analyzing apartment acquisitions but none was built for the express purpose of modeling value-add apartment deals. As a result, each has its limitations in value-add scenarios. So today, I’m excited to share a new apartment model; this one built […]

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Refinance Risk Analysis Tool in Excel (Updated Nov 2023)

Generally speaking, equity real estate investors spend their time modeling the upside while their debt partners spend their time modeling the downside. Equity investors generally focus on an investment’s internal rate of return, cash-on-cash return, equity multiple and other return metrics while debt investors focus on debt coverage, loan to value, debt yield and refinance […]

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Create Your First AI Tool: Sales Comp Database ChatGPT Plugin

Traditionally in commercial real estate, each organization builds its own proprietary sales comp database and then gives its analysts access to that database in order to perform comp analysis. As AI becomes more and more important, pairing the analyst team with AI tools to speed/improve that real estate analysis is essential. Thus, at the individual […]

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Using ChatGPT as a Real Estate Analyst – Sales Comp Analysis (Updated Aug 2023)

In early 2023, we here at A.CRE began exploring use cases for AI in commercial real estate. Since that time, we have released nine such posts covering topics such as using AI in the real estate job search, using AI to expand on Excel’s capabilities, using AI for real estate research, etc. However, this post […]

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ChatGPT vs Bard vs LLaMa Chat (Aug 2023) – AI Chat for CRE Comparison

If you’re an A.CRE reader, you know we’re actively exploring the numerous use cases for generative AI in commercial real estate. As part of those efforts, we’ve used ChatGPT to help us build a custom Excel add-in for CRE professionals, used ChatGPT as an analyst to assess sale comps and create a lease abstract, asked […]