A.CRE

General Vacancy and Credit Loss

In real estate underwriting, General Vacancy and Credit Loss is an adjustment to Gross Potential Income (Rental Revenue + Other Income) on the pro forma income statement. It is used to factor in likely vacancy loss due to market conditions and expected credit loss due to tenants’ failure to pay.

Putting ‘General Vacancy and Credit Loss’ in Context

The Scenario

Jessica Morgan, an Asset Manager for Pacific Horizon Fund—a prominent ODCE fund focused on core commercial real estate investments—is preparing the quarterly valuation for the fund’s grocery-anchored retail asset, “Cedar Grove Shopping Center,” located in Portland, Oregon. The 145,000-square-foot retail center was acquired five years ago and is anchored by a national grocery chain, FreshHarvest Market, which occupies 45,000 square feet under a long-term lease. The property also includes 30,000 square feet of inline space, divided among 10 small retailers, and three outparcels with standalone net-leased tenants (e.g., a fast-food restaurant, a bank branch, and a gas station), totaling 70,000 square feet.

Updated Property Details

  • Location: Portland, Oregon (highly desirable submarket)
  • Total Size: 145,000 SF
    • Anchor Tenant: FreshHarvest Market (45,000 SF, long-term lease, expires in 10 years)
    • Inline Space: 30,000 SF, with 10 small tenants (e.g., salons, boutiques, cafes)
      • Vacant Unit: 7,250 SF
      • Current Inline Occupancy: 75.83% (22,750 SF occupied ÷ 30,000 SF total)
    • Outparcels: 3 standalone pads totaling 70,000 SF (fully occupied)
  • Gross Potential Income (GPI): $3,650,000 annually (includes rental revenue and other income)
    • Anchor Tenant GPI: $1,800,000 (implied rent: $40/SF annually)
    • Inline Tenant GPI: $1,000,000 (implied rent: $33.33/SF annually)
    • Outparcels GPI: $850,000 (implied rent: $12.14/SF annually)
  • Market Vacancy Rate: 5% for inline retail; negligible for net-lease outparcels
  • Risk of Tenant Default (Credit Loss): 2% for inline tenants; 1% for the anchor and outparcels
  • Overall Property Occupancy Rate: 94.8% (137,750 SF occupied ÷ 145,000 SF total)

Applying General Vacancy and Credit Loss

Jessica reexamines each property component to determine how General Vacancy and Credit Loss adjustments should be applied, ensuring no double-counting of losses and that adjustments reflect both current and stabilized conditions.

1. Grocery Anchor (FreshHarvest Market)

The grocery anchor operates under a long-term, corporate-backed lease and is considered a stable income stream. Based on industry standards, Jessica determines that neither a General Vacancy adjustment nor a Credit Loss adjustment is necessary for the anchor tenant.

Adjustment for Grocery Anchor: $0

2. Inline Space (Small Shop Tenants)

The inline space includes 10 small tenants, but one large unit of 7,250 SF (24% of inline GLA) is currently vacant. Jessica decides to apply an adjustment for General Vacancy using the stabilized market rate of 5% for small retail space to reflect long-term performance. However, she recognizes that the property’s current vacancy rate of 24.17% far exceeds this stabilized assumption and adjusts the pro forma accordingly. To avoid double-counting, Jessica applies Credit Loss adjustments only to occupied space, assuming credit issues are separate from physical vacancies.

  • General Vacancy Loss = Inline GPI × Market Vacancy Rate
    = $1,000,000 × 5%
    = $50,000
  • Credit Loss = Inline Occupied GPI × Credit Loss Rate
    Inline Occupied GPI = $1,000,000 × 75.83% = $758,300
    Credit Loss = $758,300 × 2% = $15,166
  • Total Adjustment for Inline Space:
    General Vacancy Loss ($50,000) + Credit Loss ($15,166) = $65,166

3. Outparcels (Net-Lease Tenants)

The outparcels are fully occupied by tenants with strong credit profiles under long-term, triple-net leases. While no General Vacancy adjustment is necessary, Jessica applies a 1% Credit Loss adjustment to account for unforeseen delays in payment.

  • Credit Loss = Outparcel GPI × Credit Loss Rate
    = $850,000 × 1%
    = $8,500
  • Total Adjustment for Outparcels: $8,500

Combined Adjustments to GPI

Jessica combines the adjustments for each component of the property to determine the total impact of General Vacancy and Credit Loss:

  • Total Adjustment = Inline Adjustments + Outparcel Adjustments + Anchor Adjustment
    = $65,166 (Inline) + $8,500 (Outparcels) + $0 (Anchor)
    = $73,666 annually

After applying these adjustments, the Effective Gross Income (EGI) for Cedar Grove Shopping Center is calculated:

  • EGI = GPI – Total Adjustment
    = $3,650,000 – $73,666
    = $3,576,334 annually

Key Takeaways

  • Grocery Anchor Stability: The anchor tenant’s long-term lease provides a predictable income stream, justifying the decision to exclude vacancy or credit loss adjustments.
  • Inline Space Challenges: With significant current vacancy, Jessica applies a market-based General Vacancy adjustment to stabilize future projections and accounts for credit loss only on occupied space to avoid double-counting.
  • Outparcel Strength: The outparcels’ fully leased, creditworthy tenants require only minimal Credit Loss adjustments, demonstrating the strength of these income streams.
  • Market Trends: By applying market vacancy rates for stabilization while reflecting current occupancy in the analysis, Jessica balances long-term valuation accuracy with present-day realities.

Through this detailed analysis, Jessica ensures the ODCE fund’s investors receive an accurate and defensible valuation of Cedar Grove Shopping Center.

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